吕桂军, 袁巧丽. 开封市1951~2018年气候变化特征及未来趋势研究[J]. 黄河水利职业技术学院学报, 2020, 32(3): 31-36. DOI: 10.13681/j.cnki.cn41-1282/tv.2020.03.008
    引用本文: 吕桂军, 袁巧丽. 开封市1951~2018年气候变化特征及未来趋势研究[J]. 黄河水利职业技术学院学报, 2020, 32(3): 31-36. DOI: 10.13681/j.cnki.cn41-1282/tv.2020.03.008
    Lv Guijun, Yuan Qiaoli. Research on Change Characteristics and Future Trend of Climate of Kaifeng City from 1951 to 2018[J]. Journal of Yellow River Conservancy Technical Institute, 2020, 32(3): 31-36. DOI: 10.13681/j.cnki.cn41-1282/tv.2020.03.008
    Citation: Lv Guijun, Yuan Qiaoli. Research on Change Characteristics and Future Trend of Climate of Kaifeng City from 1951 to 2018[J]. Journal of Yellow River Conservancy Technical Institute, 2020, 32(3): 31-36. DOI: 10.13681/j.cnki.cn41-1282/tv.2020.03.008

    开封市1951~2018年气候变化特征及未来趋势研究

    Research on Change Characteristics and Future Trend of Climate of Kaifeng City from 1951 to 2018

    • 摘要: 根据开封市1951~2018年的气象数据,用5年滑动平均法、线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、变标度极差分析法和滑动t检验法综合分析了开封市气候变化特征及未来趋势。结果表明:(1)1970年以前,开封市年降水量呈不显著减少趋势;1970年以后,降水量呈显著减少趋势,且未来年降水量将继续保持显著减少的趋势。开封市年降水量在2011年前后发生突变。(2)多年来,开封市年平均气温及春、夏、秋、冬四季平均气温均呈显著增加趋势。其中,冬季和春季升温对开封气候变暖贡献最大。未来开封地区气温将继续保持逐年增加的趋势。平均气温在1993年前后发生突变。(3)日照时数呈显著减少的趋势。未来开封地区月均日照时数将继续保持逐年减少的趋势。月均日照时数在1997年前后发生突变。

       

      Abstract: According to the meteorological data of Kaifeng city from 1951 to 2018, the climate change characteristics and future trends of Kaifeng city were analyzed by using the 5-year moving average method, linear trend method, Mann-Kendall trend test, variable scale range analysis method and sliding T test method. The results show that :(1) before 1970, the annual precipitation of Kaifeng city showed an insignificant decreasing trend; After 1970, the precipitation showed a significant decrease trend, and the precipitation will continue to decrease significantly in the future. The annual precipitation of Kaifeng city changed around 2011. (2) Over the years, the annual average temperature of Kaifeng and the average temperature of spring, summer, autumn and winter have all shown a significant increase trend. Among them, warming in winter and spring contributed the most to Kaifeng climate warming. In the future, the temperature in Kaifeng area will continue to increase year by year. The average temperature changed abruptly around 1993. (3) The sunshine hours showed a significant decrease trend. In the future, the average sunshine hours of the month in Kaifeng area will continue to decrease year by year. The average sunshine hours of the month changed abruptly around 1997.

       

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